Ever since I declared him one of the best center fielders in the major leagues a couple days ago, Kemp has since gone 0-10 and has looked terrible doing it.
Well, that'll teach me to positive about the team. I should just stick purely to complaining and negativity, they seem to do better when I do.
:o
Wow, this certainly came out of nowhere.
"DeWitt was batting .500 (11 for 22) over a four-game stretch that ended on Saturday, but according to his day-by-day stats on milb.com, he hasn't played since. Not sure why, but I'll try to find out. Ozuna had become nothing more than a late-inning defensive replacement and pinch runner, but I would imagine if he clears waivers, he'll be back next week."Could this possibly mean that Martin won't have to play third whenever Loney or Blake need a breather?! Could this really mean that Russell will actually get a real day off?! I wait anxiously in anticipation.
Since I want to think as little as possible about how the major league club is currently doing, this 'Down On The Farm' is quite long. Enjoy.
Ivan DeJesus|SS|AA|21-I was high on him coming into this year, but he has since surpassed even my expectations. DeJesus has maintained his high OBP (.413), but he's now hitting the ball harder with more consistency (17.9 LD%).
The most impressive part about his development is the recent increase in power. For the month of August, DeJesus has already hit 3 home runs, which eclipses his total for all the other previous months combined. He also carries a .620 SLG and a 1.125 OPS in the month. I don't think i've ever seen him show that kind of pop before, so even though this is more than likely a temporary power surge, it's very promising for his future.
James McDonald|RHP|AAA|23-As we all already know, James has been promoted to AAA, and he was even considered for the rotation spot that Greg Maddux eventually got. Despite getting shelled in the start that Ned Colletti went to watch, McDonald has excellent numbers at AAA thus far. He has struck out 27 batters in 17 1/3 innings, and has only walked 5.
From a scouting perspective, things look extremely positive. The development of his changeup is one of the keys to his future success, and it was recently voted by Baseball America as the best in the Southern League. High praise, indeed.
Chris Withrow|RHP|A+|19-I'm actually now concerned about a few things with him. He's still only pitching 1 inning at a time, he seems to need a lot of days off between appearances, and he hasn't struck out anybody yet in 3 innings. Plus, he's given up 4 walks.
Yeah, I know, sample size. Still though, it's not exactly the return I expected after already missing almost all of the season and claiming to be ready to go upon activation.
Chin Lung Hu|SS|AAA|24-After being activated and getting off to a fast start, I had high hopes for his progression. Unfortunately, he seems to be regressing more than anything else. He isn't showing the pop that he did in the minors last year, and he has 18 strikeouts against just 6 walks. He's not hitting the ball hard either, as his LD% is just 9.
Greg Miller|LHP|AAA|23-I'm pretty disappointed in his performance as of late. In May and June, he actually showed signs of being somewhat usable as a reliever because his BB rates were improving. For those months, he walked 15 batters in 28 innings, which is not remarkable, but is an excellent showing by his standards. However, in July and August, Miller has now walked a ridiculous 28 batters in 15 2/3 innings. Seriously, that is absolutely fucking atrocious.
Lucas May|C|AA|23-I sure am glad that the Dodgers traded away Carlos Santana now! May is hitting .228 with a .692 OPS, and he has 105 strikeouts in less than 400 plate appearances. Joy.
Scott Elbert|LHP|AA|23-He's still only pitching one inning at a time down in AA. I'm not sure if he's still hurt, if the Dodgers want him to be a reliever, or if they're just afraid of stretching him out. At any rate, none of it really bodes well.
The good news? His statistics are showing signs that he's gradually getting better. He had 16 walks against 26 strikeouts in June and July, but he has since struck out 17 batters and only walked 4 in 10 2/3 innings.
Josh Lindblom|RHP|AA|21-The Dodgers' second round pick in 2008, Lindblom has already been promoted to AA after a very impressive showing in A- ball. He was supposed to be polished coming out of college, so skipping a level isn't really that big of a deal, but it's usually not something that the Dodgers do. In 29 innings, he has struck out 33 batters and walked only 4. He also carries an excellent FIP of 2.44.
Andrew Lambo|OF|AA|19-He was also promoted to AA, but his promotion was much more surprising than Lindblom's. As it is, Lambo was already quite young for A- ball, but now he's extremely young in AA. I still don't think it's likely that he starts there next season, but the fact that the Dodgers would even do this shows how highly they think of his talent. If he continues to thrive, his ETA could be bumped up a year.
John Lindsey|1B|AAA|31-Okay, this is a little out there, but why the hell not? Does Lindsey have team destroying AIDS or something? Come on, the dude hit 30 HR last year, and he now has 25 HR this year. He currently sports a .944 OPS, and that's actually down from the 1.010 he posted last year. He doesn't strike out a ton (14.8% K), he walks at a decent rate (10.9% BB), he makes solid contact (17% LD), and has a ton of power (.243 ISO).
Yes, I know he's a 31-year-old career minor leaguer who will probably suck balls in the long run. However, he will also probably suck less balls than Mark Sweeney currently does. Honestly though, the most Sweeney can do is hit a groundball dribbler for a single. At least Lindsey gives the Dodgers hope that he'll hit a double or something. So yeah, I hope he gets called up and is used to pinch hit, he deserves a shot for once in his life.
Blake DeWitt|2B|AAA|23-Instead of pouting, Blake has gone down to AAA, learned a new position, and improved on his AA numbers from last year. His ISO is still about the same (~.180) but his BB% is way up (3.7% to 8.1%), his K% is down (13.9% to 11.3%), and he's hitting the ball ridiculously hard (18% LD to 23% LD). Also, considering his LD%, his .849 OPS is actually lower than expected.
Yes, he's currently benefitting from the hitter's park in Las Vegas, but he still barely has over 100 PA, so i'll postpone judgement on that aspect.
Xavier Paul|OF|AAA|23-Like DeWitt, Paul has also put up better numbers in AAA than he did in AA. However, Paul is not benefitting very much from his home park. His OPS is .830 at home, and .820 on the road, suggesting that his improvement is completely legit. Also in his favor is the fact that his ISO has increased (.138 to .147), and he has cut down on his strikeouts (23.2% to 19%).
Kyle Russell|OF|R|22-The Dodgers' 3rd round draft pick in 2008 is lighting up rookie league, and quite frankly, he should be. While his .985 OPS and .287 ISO are impressive, the 29.8% K rate in Rookie ball is not a very good sign. If he strikes out that much against obviously inferior pitching, I cringe to think what he would do against even AA guys.
Overview-A pitcher in high school, the Dodgers selected Paul as an outfielder in the 4th round of the 2003 draft. After flashing his talent for a couple years in the minors, Paul then hit a bumpy stretch for a few years, but is now showing improvment again. The main question about Paul is whether he'll ever fill out all of his tools to their max potential, or if he's just going to maintain his steady improvement into a lifetime 4th or 5th outfielder.
Hitting-Paul doesn't do anything particularily well, but he doesn't do anything particularily poor either. He has some pop, but he's never going to be a power threat. He makes solid contact, but will never win a batting title. What problems he does have lie in his plate discipline and pitch recognition. On the positive side, those are the two areas in which he has shown the most improvement over the past two years. Still, he will probably always strikeout far too much for somebody who offers merely average pop.
Fielding-Paul plays all 3 outfield positions, but he's merely average in center. He would rate as an outstanding left fielder and an above average defender in right. Paul used to throw in the mid-90s as a pitcher, so he certainly has a good enough throwing arm to play just about anywhere. He also has above average range, and is constantly improving his reads on the balls off the bat. He should be at least an above average defender when his progression is done.
Baserunning-Paul has above average running speed, and he's constantly improving his baserunning skills. He projects to be a solid basestealer, but nothing special.
Mental-Has shown good mental fortitude by pushing through all the obstacles in his career. The obstacles are mentioned in the 'Health' and 'Other' sections.
Health-He suffered from an odd illness that affected his performance for a full year. It supposedly had flu-like symptoms, but eventually it was revealed to be an eye problem. The next year, he suffered from back issues that sapped his power and overall skills. Two unfortunate events that set his progress back a couple years, but they are supposedly non-issues now.
Performance-His LD% has shown a slow but steady increase, and his solid speed allows him to maintain a higher BABIP than expected. His ISO (~.140) seems to have stabalized, and it may indicate that he'll never develop his power much further. His K rate (~22.5%) is unacceptable for his power numbers, and that will need to come down for him to become a valuable major leaguer. On the plus side though, his BB rate jumped from 7.3% to 10.2% while moving up a level of competition, so he's still getting better.
Paul's a little older than he should be for his level of play, but that has less to do with actual struggles in his progression, and more to do with the few years he lost to struggles with injuries and hardship.
Other-He had his home destroyed by Hurricane Katrina.
Projection-His ceiling would put him at about 14-16 HR with a .280-.290 average, and a good number of doubles. Even if he attains that, he will still probably strikeout close to 100 times and might struggle to attain 50 walks in a season.
Still, because he's already quite close to his eventual ceiling, he's a pretty good bet to become a solid major leaguer. If you didn't already notice, a common theme with my report on Paul is that he grades out from below average to above average in just about every category. So while he's probably never going to be good enough to be a major league regular, his versatility and well rounded skills make him a very good shot to fit as a 4th outfielder on any team.
Now that he's healthy, the Dodgers have continued to push Paul by assigning him to AAA. If he puts in a solid year at AAA, he could be called up as soon as late-2008, but the more likely outcome is sometime in 2009.
No, you didn’t read the title wrong, nor am I going crazy. In fact, the reality of the title just struck me the other day as I was perusing a statistics page. See, here's the thing, lost in all the criticism Matt Kemp gets for his demeanor, or his attitude, or for striking out, or for losing fly balls in the sun (cause nobody ever does that, only young players), is the fact that he is one of the premier center fielders in major league baseball.
Personally, I think a lot of fans don’t exactly realize how few offensive center fielders there actually are. Generally speaking, people associate all outfielders with power and production because they see guys like Barry Bonds and Manny Ramirez tearing it up. However, the reality is that outfielders who can actually justify their spot in center field, and also produce offensively, are very view and far between.
Still, superficially speaking, Kemp doesn’t seem anywhere near elite.
AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS
Average Major League Center Fielder-.267/.333/.419/.752
Matt Kemp-.298/.347/.479/.826
Well above average, but surely not elite, right? Let’s take a closer look…
Among All Qualified Center Fielders-VORP/OPS
Grady Sizemore-57.2/.904
Josh Hamilton-47.4/.909
Curtis Granderson-38.3/.877
Nate McLouth-37.1/.863
Carlos Beltran-35.7/.834
Ichiro Suzuki-32.2/.753
Matt Kemp-29.9/.826
Rick Ankiel-27.1/.867
Shane Victorino-26.8/.805
Torii Hunter-26.1/.805
Those are the top 10 center fielders in the majors listed by VORP. I also included their OPS for further superficial comparison.
Now, if you just take a look at the pure offensive production (VORP), I think many casual fans would already be very surprised by where Kemp stands. In fact, I even think many of the more educated fans would be shocked to see his name sandwiched between guys like Beltran, Suzuki, Ankiel, and Hunter.
So even though he seems to be showing signs of becoming a marquee center fielder, he doesn’t yet seem to be quite in that upper tier. However, a closer look would disagree with that notion.
Rate/RAA/Plus Minus
Grady Sizemore-94/-7/+7
Josh Hamilton-82/-14/-6
Curtis Granderson-104/4/-4
Nate McLouth-85/-17/-18
Carlos Beltran-103/3/+14
Ichiro Suzuki-106/4/-5
Matt Kemp-106/4/+2
Rick Ankiel-91/-8/-7
Shane Victorino-101/1/+2
Torii Hunter-111/12/0
All of these numbers listed are metrics used to measure defensive value. However, as I have said before, fielding metrics can be highly volatile, so people usually need to take them with a grain of salt. Still, when all available fielding metrics point in one direction, the evidence is so overwhelming that there's only one logical conclusion.
So, if we analyze the list, we can quickly point out McLouth, Hamilton, and Ankiel as players who are not true center fielders at all. McLouth, in particular, is so bad defensively that he probably torpedoes a lot of his offensive worth.
Next, there are the players with confounding evidence, namely Sizemore, Granderson, and Suzuki. Looking back at previous seasons, Granderson and Suzuki both have track records of good defense in center field, so i’ll give them both passes. However, Sizemore’s Rate and RAA have always been low, so that’s probably accurate. Furthermore, his Plus Minus rating the past two years have been –2 and –1 so that’s not very promising for his defense either.
Now, by eliminating the impostor center fielders and concentrating on those who can actually field the position, we’re left with a list that consists of Kemp, Hunter, Beltran, Victorino, Granderson, and Suzuki. Of those remaining, Kemp ranks above Hunter, Victorino, and (arguably) Suzuki, leaving him as a top 3 offensive center fielder. Defensively speaking, he’s arguably better than all of them except Hunter, making him top 2 on this list. Therefore, any rational person, regardless of his minor quibbles with certain statistical errors or sample size, would have to admit that Kemp is, at the very least, a top 5 center fielder in the majors right now. He's a player who not only contributes significantly offensively, but also does not destroy his team’s defense by providing overwhelmingly inferior defensive value.
In short, Matt Kemp is a top offensive center fielder, an above average defensive center fielder, is paid close to the minimum, is cost controlled for years to come, and is showing signs of improvement as the season trolls along. Oh, and did I mention that he’s still only 23? Yeah, he’s sorta decent for his age too.
So all his naysayers can take their small scope SportsCenter highlight misplays, their “he strikes out too much” criticisms, and their cries of “overrated prospect”, and shove them directly up their ass. If anything, Kemp’s now underrated and underappreciated, and he’s more than proven why every major league team would kill to trade for him.
One more thing, if you hadn’t noticed, Kemp is the same player that Ned Colletti has tried to deal in almost every major trade for about the past 2 years now. And yet, people still wonder why I run a site called Fire Ned Colletti Now. Ha.
This picture is a good one.
In all seriousness though, the last few weeks are a good reason why you don't waste your time on them. Sure, he made me look like a douche for a few weeks, but he eventually came back to reality. Since July 29th, when he had a 1.38 ERA, he has since pitched 12 2/3 innings and given up 12 earned runs. But hey, obviously nobody saw that coming. It's not like he's 34, didn't pitch in the majors in 2007, and had a 6.10 ERA in 2006. Plus, he pitched well for like a week! INVALUABLE VETERAN PRESENCE!
It's not just guys like Jason Johnson though. The Dodgers also have another waste of space in Tanyon Sturtze. He almost looks serviceable now, but try to remember that Tanyon can suck with the best of them. Like Johnson, Sturtze is old as fuck (37). Like Johnson, Sturtze also missed 2007. Unlike Johnson, Sturtze didn't have an ERA of 6.10 in 2006. No, Sturtze's 7.59 ERA was actually worse. Congrats to him!
But hey, it's a good story about how Tanyon came back from shoulder surgery, right? Wrong. I honestly don't give a fuck. Why should I feel good for him about getting over an injury if he sucks for the Dodgers? Many other players have persevered through injuries, and they haven't yet made the 5 million dollars that Sturtze has.
Basically, fuck guys like Sturtze, the guys I truly feel sorry for are the 32-year-old career minor leaguers who make 40 grand a year but are still keeping the dream alive anyway. So forgive me for not feeling sorry for a rich, old, crappy player who is only back in the big leagues because Joe Torre feels bad about abusing him like a rented mule in New York. This shit is like baseball's version of nepotism.
Overview-Signed as a free agent, Baez has solid tools but is quite raw. He flashed significant potential in his rookie season, but still has a long journey ahead of him.
Hitting-Baez has solid bat speed, and his raw power is immense. He has a good swing path that would seem to indicate more consistent hard contact as he matures. His plate discipline and awareness are very raw at this stage, and he'll need to show significant improvement in both areas if he's going to transform into a top prospect with the bat.
Fielding-For a large guy, Baez is very coordinated and composed. He also has a quick first step which leads to surprisingly decent range. Pedro's most obvious defensive tool is his outstanding arm strength, but it can get wild from time to time. Even though it'll be a harder position to play as he fills out more, Baez has all the tools to stick at third in the long-term.
Baserunning-He has good reactions, but his top end speed is below average. He also figures to get at least marginally slower as he matures.
Mental-Nothing to note.
Health-No significant injuries that I know of.
Performance-Once again, with many players who only have half a season of professional baseball under their belt, it's very hard to find any meaning in their statistics.
Other-As evidenced by his coordination and fluidity, Baez is a very good athlete.
Projection-If everything develops according to plan, Baez could easily become a major league regular at third, and has the talent to make All-Star teams. His ceiling is high, but it's still very early in his development, and things can change from year to year.
The Dodgers will try to push him to A- ball this year, but given how raw he is, I expect him to repeat a level at least once somewhere along his path to bigs. To set an arrival date at this point in his development would be nothing more than a wild guess, so i'm going to wait until I see more of him.
Many of the Dodgers' injured are due back after the rosters expand in September.
"But Torre also knows he cannot count on having hurlers such as Takashi Saito, Brad Penny, Jason Schmidt and Scott Proctor returning in September.Unfortunately, it doesn't look like much help is coming from the minors.
The one injured pitcher who figures to be back soon is Cory Wade, who came out of a bullpen session Saturday feeling good after being out since Aug. 8 with right shoulder inflammation.
Proctor (right elbow tendinitis) and Schmidt (shoulder surgery) will also make rehab appearances this week. Proctor will throw an inning on Monday and Schmidt on Tuesday, both likely for Triple-A Las Vegas, Torre said.
Penny (right shoulder inflammation) will lightly toss on Sunday, which will be the first time he has thrown a baseball since a six-run, three-inning start on Aug. 13, his second outing since spending almost two months on the DL.
As for Saito (torn right elbow ligament), he will join the club in Arizona next week and throw off a mound for the first time since walking off the hill at Dodger Stadium on July 12.
Outfielder Andruw Jones (left knee patellar tendinitis) is continuing to take batting practice and participate in drills, but he likely will not return to Las Vegas' lineup for another few days.
Outfielder Delwyn Young (right oblique strain) went 0-for-14 in his first five rehab games for Las Vegas, but busted out with a 3-for-5 performance with two doubles, a triple and three runs scored on Friday."
"With apparently none of the Dodgers' minor-league affiliates looking like they'll be playoff bound, the team's September callups should start arriving on Sept. 2, the second day of the upcoming homestand. It looks like A.J. Ellis will be coming up from Vegas to be the third catcher. He is hitting .309 this year, so he'll edge out Lucas May, who is hitting .228 at Jacksonville, even though May is on the 40-man roster and Ellis isn't. Although I have long been under the impression that James McDonald was a lock for a callup, that apparently is still being discussed and is far from assured. But it looks like Ellis will be the only guy not presently on the roster who will be called up. Dodgers don't have a lot of flexibility. The 40-man is full, and there aren't a lot of guys on it whom you can look at and say, 'He's expendable.'"The fact that so many guys are alledgedly due to return is a positive, especially the pitchers. Saito, Wade, Proctor, and Penny could really help an extremely tired bullpen. However, it's somewhat sad that the Dodgers aren't expected to take a chance on any of the young players in the minors.
Overview-Signed as a 8th round draft pick in 2003, May was originally selected to play shortstop. He didn't have the skills to stick at the position, however, and after much shuffling, he eventually found a home behind the plate. With both his offensive and defensive skills still developing, it remains to be seen where May will fit in the Dodgers' plans.
Hitting-Any discussion of May's offensive tools starts with his power. His plus power for a catcher is generated by a long swing that can get pull concious at times. He has poor contact rates, and he's a free swinger with well below average plate discipline.
Fielding-May still has a long way to go behind the plate but he is flashing all the tools of a competent defensive catcher. His well above average arm is more than enough, and he has the athleticism to handle the position. Yes, he still has a lot to learn about calling games, blocking balls, and other nuiances, but I would be very surprised if he didn't develop into a solid defensive option.
Baserunning-May has good speed, especially for a catcher. He's adept at stealing bases, but I doubt that'll continue as he moves up levels.
Mental-Still has a lot of learning to do about calling a game, but there's nothing else to note of any significance.
Health-No problems that i'm aware of.
Performance-I mentioned before that May's raw power is his biggest offensive asset, and so far his statistics reflect just that. With ISO's of .220 and .209 the past two years, he shows that his power numbers are legit and here to stay.
His low batting averages are a problem, but May hits the ball hard with decent consistency (15% LD last two years). The problem is that he doesn't put the ball in play nearly enough to give his average a chance, as he strikes out in 20-25% of his plate appearances. Since that number is not offset by good plate discipline (~7% BB last two years), May will probably never hit for a high average if he doesn't improve drastically.
It's surprising that, even with all the position shuffling, May is not that old for his level of play. Therefore, i'm not all that concerned with any statistical skewing.
Other-He's a good athlete, and most scouts seem to agree that he has a very strong work ethic.
Projection-At this point in his development, May's ceiling projects as a .240-.250 hitter with 20-25 HR power. He should also have solid gap power, but his on-base skills will probably always lag.
I think the likelihood of May reaching his ceiling is quite high, especially since it's just a reflection of what his current strengths and weaknesses already show. At worse, May ends up being a solid major league backup. At best, he's sorta like Mike Napoli with less walks. Think less HR and more 2B though.
The Dodgers gave May an ambitious assignment at AA for 2008, especially considering his relative lack of experience. He'll likely need to repeat AA in 2009, but he could be in Los Angeles by as early as 2010 if that goes well. However, the more likely scenario is that he gets dealt to another team the moment he starts to show development at AA.
